000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2013 UTC Tue Oct 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to
09N80W to 16N100W to 1011 mb low pres near 13N108W to 1010 mb low
pres near 15N122W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 10N between 82W and 95W, within about 90 nm n of 
trough between 104W and 110W, and from 10N to 15N W of 125W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N 
to 16N between 121W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moisture associated with the remnant low of Narda will continue
to impact parts of NW Mexico, and spread northeastward across 
portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days,
enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those 
areas. Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of coastal
Mexico along the Gulf of California. Although the high surf should
decrease, these swells could still cause life-threatening rip 
current conditions the rest of today.

Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters 
of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting
in moderate to fresh NW-N winds with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 
Seas will subside below 8 ft late tonight. 

A weak cyclonic circulation is forecast to develop over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec tonight into Wed. This may help to briefly bring 
in moderate to fresh northerly winds. The low is forecast to 
drift southeastward through early on Fri. Northerly winds will 
pulse to mainly moderate speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu 
through Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data indicated that gentle to moderate west to 
northwest winds continue from Costa Rica to the Tehuantepec 
region, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are noted
south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombia. Mainly 
moderate southerly winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Wave heights are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off 
Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer data
provided observations of fresh to locally strong southwest 
monsoonal flow between Central America and the Galapagos Islands,
with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft 
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama tonight, and
across the offshore waters on northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua
on Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure located well northwest of the forecast area near 
35N142W extends a ridge southeastward across the northern 
forecast waters, mainly north of 20N and west of about 120W. 
Scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds 
north of 18N and west of 120W, with corresponding altimeter data 
indicating wave heights of 7-8 ft in this region. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the monsoon trough will result in fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east winds on Wed as a couple of nearly stationary 
low pressure systems remain along the monsoon trough. 

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the
system meanders generally westward. A 1010 mb low pressure is an
analyzed near 15N122W on the 1800 UTC map. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is mainly on the W side of the low from 12N to
16N between 121W and 125W.

$$
GR