000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 01 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of northwestern Colombia to across central Costa Rica, and northwestward from there to along the coast to near 16N93W to 17N101W to low pressure near 13N109.5W to 13N118W to low pressure near 16N125W and to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 84W and 88W and between 106W and 109W. Similar convection is within 150 nm south of the trough between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 125W and 130W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 120W and 125W and within 60 nm of the trough west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of what was once Tropical Storm Narda is located over the Gulf of California close to the coast of Mexico near 27.3N 110.3W 1005 mb at 8 AM PD. It is moving NNW at 11 kt. First visible satellite imagery shows that there is no deep convection associated with the low. Isolated showers and small patches of rain are possible over some sections of the southern and central Gulf of California. Strong upper-level winds as noted in upper air and model data are present over the northern Gulf of California ahead of an upper-level trough that has moved inland California and Nevada. These upper-level winds are transporting mid and upper-level moisture related to the remnant low north and northeastward across extreme northwestern Mexico and over sections of the southern plains states. This moisture is forecast to help induce heavy rainfall over the aforementioned areas. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in fresh to locally strong northwest winds to the north of Punta Abreojos, where wave heights are up 8 ft. These winds will continue through this evening before diminishing slightly tonight through Thu. The wave heights will lower to below 8 ft on Thu. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection will persist today between Cabo Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A broad and weak northeast to southwest aligned trough is expected to persist from near Cabo Corrientes to well offshore the Mexican for the next few days and maintain light to moderate winds. Weak low pressure is expected to form near this trough in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Wed. The cyclonic circulation associated with this low may help to briefly bring in moderate to fresh northerly winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed. The low is forecast to drift southeastward through early on Fri, then drift westward through Sat. Northerly winds will pulse to mainly moderate speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data indicated that gentle to moderate west to northwest winds continue from Costa Rica to the Tehuantepec region, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are noted south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombia. Mainly moderate southerly winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Fresh to locally strong southwest monsoonal flow will resume today between Central America and the Galapagos Islands, with wave heights building to 8 to 9 ft from offshore of Costa Rica and Panama to the equator. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located well northwest of the forecast area near 36N142W extends a ridge southeastward across the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 20N and west of about 120W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 18N and west of 120W, with corresponding altimeter data indicating wave heights of 7-8 ft in this region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to fresh winds northeast to east winds north of of the monsoon trough today, with fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds on Wed as a couple of nearly stationary low pressure systems remain along the monsoon trough. Fresh southwest winds are present south and within about 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 107W and 115W with wave heights up to 9 ft. $$ Aguirre