000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011016
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

At 0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Narda is centered near 26.6N 109.7W 
moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Narda has moved north of Los Mochis and back over water during 
the past few hours and will moving NNW and move ashore for a 
last time later this today, running just inland or along the 
coast from Huatabampo to Guaymas before veering farther inland 
and quickly weakening this evening through tonight. Scattered to 
numerous moderate convection is seen within 45 nm across the NE 
and 120 nm SW semicircles, while scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection extends well SSW, from 18.5N to 28N E of 111W. 
Narda is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches 
in Sinaloa, 1 to 3 inches in Chihuahua and Western Durango, 1 to 
2 inches in Sonora, and up to 1 inch in Baja California Sur. 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and 
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SW waves generated 
by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico and will shift northward with the storm today. 

See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 13N77W TO 10.5N87W TO 
17N102.5W TO low pres near 13N109.5W TO low pres near 16N123.5W 
TO 15N134W TO beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is N of 11N between 88W and 97W, and within 210 nm S 
of the trough between 105W and 120W, and between 123W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section above for information 
about Tropical Storm Narda. 

Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters 
of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures over the SW of United States is resulting in 
fresh to locally strong NW winds to the N of Punta Abreojos, 
where seas are running 7 to 8 ft. These marine conditions will 
persist through this evening before winds and seas slowly 
abate through Thu.

Moderate to strong NW to W winds between Cabo Corrientes and 
Tehuantepec have diminished during the past 24 hours. However, 
unsettle weather continues across this region with scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection expected to continue today. 
A broad and weak Ne to SW aligned trough is expected to persist 
from near Cabo Corrientes to well offshore for the next few days 
and maintain light to moderate winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail north of Costa Rica to 
the Tehuantepec region, while moderate SW to W winds are noted 
south of Panama and off the coast of Colombia. Mainly moderate 
southerly winds are blowing between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off 
Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Fresh to locally strong 
SW monsoon flow will resume today between Central America and 
the Galapagos Islands, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft 
from offshore of Costa Rica and Panama to the equator.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure located well NW of the forecast area near 36N142W 
extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 
20N W of 120W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to 
fresh NE winds north of 18N and west of 120W, with corresponding 
altimeter data indicating seas were 7 to 8 ft in this region. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in moderate to 
fresh winds NE-E winds N of the monsoon trough today, with fresh 
to locally strong NE-E winds on Wed as a couple of low pressure 
systems remain along the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds are 
blowing S and within about 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 
107W and 115W with seas to 9 ft.  

$$
Stripling