000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280224 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Sat Sep 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. A 1006 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N99W moving W at 4 kt. Environmental conditions are very favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so, while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at about 10 kt near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on Saturday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to 09.5N80W to 15N92W to 1006 mb low pressure located near 13N99W to 15N120W to 12N130W and to beyond 12N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 100W and 104W, and from 13N to 15N between 105W and 107W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are also noted over western Honduras, and parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11N W of 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data revealed light to gentle winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, while fresh northwest winds were observed south of Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. An altimeter pass indicated seas to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted over the central and southern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds over the northern part of the Gulf. A ridge is forecast dominate the region over the weekend producing a moderate to locally fresh wind flow. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with strong gusty winds and frequent lightning at times, will continue across the Mexican coastal waters, mainly between Acapulco and Manzanillo, fueled by strong southwest winds well offshore of southern Mexico By Sun night into Mon, marine conditions could deteriorate near Cabo Corrientes with the developing low pressure system described above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong southwest to west monsoon flow will support showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat. This strong monsoonal flow will build seas to 8 to 12 ft tonight and Sat, with wave heights peaking to 9 or 10 ft spreading eastward towards the coastal waters of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N W of 110W producing mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted over the NW corner of the area behind a weakening frontal boundary. Long-period north swells in the wake of the front are propagating across the waters N of 26N W of 125W, building seas to 10 ft. Seas will gradually subside to 8 ft in this area on Sun. $$ GR