000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1936 UTC Fri Sep 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N99W or a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. A large cluster of strong convection is noted NW of the low center covering mainly the waters from 14N to 18N between 100W and 104W. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is not well organized, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 kt near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SW to W winds near and to the S of the low center, particularly from 07N to 13N between 90W and 100W, with seas up to 12 or 13 ft. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are also noted W of the low from 10N to 15N between 100W and 105W, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Due to the strong monsoonal flow, a large area of 8 ft seas or greater are expected to impact the offshore forecast waters from northern Costa Rica all the way to near Cabo Corrientes at least during the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 14N90W to 1008 mb low pressure located near 13N99W to a second 1009 mb low pressure situated near 15N106.5W to 12N130W and to beyond 11N140W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 100W and 104W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 12N between 98W and 104W, and N of 10N between 87W and 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 92W and 95W, and within about 90 nm south of trough between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data revealed light to gentle winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters, while fresh northwest winds were observed south of Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Wave heights are generally 4-7 ft in northwest swell across these waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted over the central and southern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds over the northern part of the Gulf. A ridge is forecast dominate the region over the weekend producing a moderate to locally fresh wind flow. By Sun night into Mon, marine conditions could deteriorate between Las Marias Islands and the entrance of the Gulf of California with the developing low pressure system described above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong southwest to west monsoon flow will support showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat. This strong monsoonal flow will build seas to 8 to 12 ft through tonight, with wave heights peaking to 8 ft spreading eastward towards the coastal waters of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N W of 110W producing mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted over the NW corner of the area behind a weakening frontal boundary. Long-period north swells in the wake of the front are propagating across the waters N of 26N W of 125W, building seas to 10 ft. Seas will gradually subside to 8 ft in this area on Sun. $$ GR