000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A weak low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 15N113W, 
producing fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas, will drift northward 
today. Gradual development of this system is possible during the 
next day or so, and there is a moderate chance this system may 
become a tropical depression. However, conditions are expected 
to become unfavorable for further development this weekend as 
this system becomes absorbed within a broad monsoon circulation 
that will develop south of Mexico Fri and Sat.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 120W from 05N to 16N, moving west 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 
14N between 117W and 123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across the region from 07N77W to 
07N84W to 13N93W to low pressure near 15N113W to 09N126W to 
11N134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 09N to 14N between 89W and 102W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weakening cold front will drop southward into the northern 
waters this weekend, accompanied by increased NW swell. Low 
pressure near 15N113W will drift northward into the offshore 
waters later today, then become absorbed within a larger 
cyclonic circulation expected to develop south of Mexico on Fri. 
W to SW monsoon flow off the southern coast of Mexico will 
strengthen Fri through Mon as this area of low pressure deepens.
A tropical depression is likely to form from this system over 
the weekend as it moves NW near the coast of Mexico. Please see 
the latest Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for 
more information. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the 
region is resulting in light to gentle breezes across much of 
the Baja California offshore waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh SW to W monsoon flow will develop off the coasts of 
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat, from an area of low 
pressure expected to develop south of Mexico. Associated seas 
will build to 8-12 ft off Guatemala and El Salvador, with 8 ft 
seas spreading toward Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Winds and seas will diminish today in far western waters as the 
remnants of Kiko move farther west of the area. Elsewhere, long 
period N swell will build seas to 7-9 ft N of 25N and west of 
120W through Sat. Wave heights will peak around 10 ft early Fri.

$$
Mundell