000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 116W from 05N to 17N, moving west 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
east of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 112W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over water from 16N93W to a low 
pressure 1010 mb near 12.5N101W to 14N114W to 13N127W to 
14N133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N 
between 120W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Weak high pressure will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula this week. W to SW 
monsoon flow will intensify Thu night through Sun as an area of 
low pressure develops along an elongated surface trough south of 
Mexico. 

A weak area of low pressure is located near 12.5N101W along the 
monsoon trough. This system is expected to drift northward and 
then become absorbed within a larger monsoon trough on Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough through Friday. Seas will build to greater than 8 
ft by Friday for the waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko is west of 140W and continues to move 
farther away from the discussion area. The gradient between Kiko 
and high pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds from 17N to 28N W of 130W. Mixed swell from 
Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft or larger seas from 11N 
to 24N W of 136W. This area of high seas will shrink in size and 
shift west of 140W during the next 24 hours.

Long period N swell will cause seas to build between 7 and 10 ft 
N of 25N and W of 120W through Sun. 

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple 
hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next 
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along 
this trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the 
weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southern 
coast of Mexico.

$$
Mundell