000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Wed Sep 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N115W to 17N115W, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 113W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough meanders WNW from NW Colombia near 10N75W through Central America from 10N82W to 14N87W to 16N96W to low pressure 1010 mb near 12.5N101W to 14N114W to 12N125W to 14N130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 81W and 87W and from 09N to 11N between 120W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure NW of Baja will generally maintain moderate NW to N winds along the Pacific coast of the Peninsula this week. SW monsoon flow will likely become strong along the southern coast of Mexico Thu night through Sun as the monsoon trough lifts northward. A weak area of low pressure located near 12.5N101W, along the monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 15N between 103W and 113W. Significant development of this system is not expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Fresh to strong winds may affect the waters N of 10N Wed night through Sat. Seas will generally remain in the 6 to 8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post Tropical Cyclone Kiko is centered W of the area near 19.2N 140.5W at 25/0300 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. A gradual turn toward the west and then southwest is expected tonight through Thu night. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The remnant low is expected to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. See latest CPHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers HFOTCMCP4/WTPA34 PHFO for more details. The pressure gradient between T.S. Kiko and a 1031 mb high pressure located near 40N137W is supporting an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds to the N of Kiko from 17N to 28N W of 130W as indicated by the most recent satellite-derived wind data. Mixed swell from Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas or greater roughly from 09N to 25N W of 134W. This area of 8 ft seas will be carried to the W of 140W by Wed evening as Kiko heads farther to the W of the forecast region. Long period N swell will cause seas to build between 8 and 10 ft for the waters generally N of 25N and W of 120W from tonight through Sun. An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico. $$ CAM