000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2025 UTC Tue Sep 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 18.0N 139.6W at 24/2100 UTC
moving NW at 7 kt. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into 
the central Pacific basin this evening. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Additional weakening is forecast, and 
Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. It 
should then degenerate into a remnant low by early Wednesday. 
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N114W to 17N114W, 
moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 110W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through Central America from 10N75W to
10N82W to 16N96W to low pressure 1010 mb near 12N101W to 14N114W
to 14N130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 11N to 14N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 15N west of 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The remnant low of Mario is centered near 26N114W and will drift
slowly NE and dissipate this evening. A weak cold front will 
move southward across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf
of California this evening and bring some increase in winds and 
seas. Expect a brief period of fresh to strong NW winds in the 
wake of the front, with seas likely building to 6 or 7 ft. 

Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of 
the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough 
lifts northward. A weak area of low pressure located near
13N102W, along the monsoon trough is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be 
too strong for significant development while it moves little, and
this system is expected to merge with a larger system to the 
east in a few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough 
through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as 
the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain 
in the 6 to 8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late 
week across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between T.S. Kiko and a 1033 mb high 
pressure located near 39N137W is supporting an area of moderate 
to fresh NE to E winds to the N of Kiko from 17N to 28N W of 
130W as indicated by the most recent satellite-derived wind 
data. Mixed swell from Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft 
seas or greater roughly from 08N to 26N W of 134W. This area of 
8 ft seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed 
as it passes to the W of the forecast region. Please see the 
Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko.

Long period N swell will cause seas to build between 8 and 11 ft
for the waters N of 24N and W of 122W from tonight through at
least Fri. 

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the 
southern coast of Mexico late this week where environmental 
conditions appear conducive for subsequent development. A 
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system 
moves near the southern or the southwestern coast of Mexico. 
Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles 
SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a 
couple of days. Some development is possible later this week 
while the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, 
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico.

$$
CAM