000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Tue Sep 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.9N 138.9W at 24/1500 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. It should then degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W from 05N to 16N, with a 1011 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 13N102W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 100W and 105W. A tropical wave is from 05N to 16N with axis along 115W, moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends along the pacific coast of Central America from 08N80W to 14N90W to low pressure 1011 mb near 13N102W to 14N115W to 13N130W, then resumes S of T.S. Kiko from 13N138W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N between 87W and 92W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N west of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Mario is centered near 26N114W and will drift slowly NE and dissipate this evening. A weak cold front will move southward across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California today bringing some increase in winds and seas. Expect a brief period of fresh to strong NW winds in the wake of the front, with seas likely building to 6 or 7 ft. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. A weak area of low pressure located near 13N102W, along the monsoon trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for significant development while it moves little, and this system is expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6 to 8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between T.S. Kiko and a 1031 mb high pressure located near 39N140W is supporting an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds to the N of Kiko from 19N to 25N W OF 135W as indicated by the most recent satellite-derived wind data. Mixed swell from Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas or greater roughly from 13N to 27N W of 133W. This area of 8 ft seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed as it passes to the W of the forecast region. Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko. Long period N swell will cause seas to build between 8 and 11 ft for the waters N of 24N and W of 122W from tonight through at least Fri. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern or the southwestern coast of Mexico. Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. $$ GR