000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 819 UTC Tue Sep 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.5N 138.2W at 24/0900 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Kiko is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 06N to 15N with axis along 103W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 98W and 110W. A tropical wave is from 07N to 17N with axis along 114W, moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 16N between 110W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 07N78W to 13N94W to low pressure 1010 mb near 13N102W to 15N113W to 12N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N east of 86W. Numerous moderate convection is from 09N to 14N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Mario is centered near 26N114W and will drift slowly NE and dissipate this evening. A trough along the Gulf of California will support light to gentle winds through Fri morning. Northerly winds will increase to moderate to strong across the southern gulf Fri through Sat as the low pressure across the region deepens. A weak pressure gradient between the trough along the gulf and surface high pressure west of the area will support light to gentle winds along the Baja California offshore waters through Thu night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected afterwards, continuing through the weekend. Looking ahead, the monsoon trough will lifts northward Wed with SW flow likely strengthening to moderate to fresh along the SW Mexico offshore waters through Thu night. Low pressure may develop near the Revillagigedo Islands Thu night and winds will increase to fresh to strong south of the Tehuantepec region by Sat as the low pressure along the monsoon deepens. Offshore seas are expected to range from 8 to 12 ft during this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6 to 8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between T.S. Kiko and a 1032 mb high pressure located near 38N138W is supporting an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds to the N of Kiko from 17N to 28N W of 130W as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data. Mixed swell from Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas or greater roughly from 14N to 24N W of 133W. This area of 8 ft seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed evening as it passes to the W of the forecast region. Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko. Long period N swell will cause seas to build between 8 and 11 ft for the waters N of 24N and W of 122W from tonight through the weekend. A small low pressure system is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N102W or several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is expected to drift N to NW during the next few days, and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. $$ Ramos