000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2036 UTC Mon Sep 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.9N 136.5W at 23/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur tonight with that motion continuing on Tuesday. A turn to the west is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with a axis extending from 05N97W to 16N97W is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 96W and 100W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 03N106W to 16N106W is moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 11N to 16N between 105W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 07N80W to 14N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N100W to 15N111W to 13N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 86W, from 10N to 13N between 112W and 123W and from 11N to 14N between 130W and 139W. Low pres measuring 1010 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 101W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Mario will move to 26.0N 114.7W this evening, 26.9N 114.4W Tue morning, then dissipate Tue evening. Elsewhere, a trough will enter the Baja California Norte waters tonight and linger into Tue. Expect a brief period of fresh southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf Tue. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Low pressure may develop along the monsoon trough off the southern coast of Mexico by late week, which would further enhance wind speeds and build offshore seas in excess of 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6 to 8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between T.S. Kiko and a 1031 mb high pressure located near 38N138W is supporting an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds to the N of Kiko from 17N to 28N W of 130W as indicated by the most recent satellite-derived wind data. Mixed swell from Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas or greater roughly from 11N to 27N W of 132W. This area of 8-ft seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed as it passes to the W of the forecast region. Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko. A cold front dissipated just N of the forecast waters W of Baja California Norte this afternoon. However, long period NW swell generated N of the front will cause seas to build to between 9 and 10 ft for the waters N of 28N and W of 125W by Wed morning and for the waters N of 26N W of 125W by Thu morning. A small low pressure system is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12N100W or several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is expected to drift N to NW during the next few days, and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. $$ CAM