000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230237 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0235 UTC Mon Sep 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.5N 134.5W at 23/0300 UTC moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm W and SW quadrants of Kiko. A turn toward the west to west- northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 23.4N 112.9W at 23/0300 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No significant convection is associated with Mario at this time. A slower north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next day or two. The remnants of Mario are expected to move over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low on Monday. The low is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 96W south of 16N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 93W and 96W. A tropical wave is near 106W south of 16N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 15N between 104W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 10N90W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 13N112W to 10N129W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko from 13N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 109W and between 113W and 122W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Mario is centered over the offshore waters south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas 8-10 ft in mixed swell from Mario will gradually subside tonight into Mon as Mario weakens off the coast of Baja California Sur. Mario is expected to dissipate early in the week. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Mario. A weakening cold front will move southward across the Baja California Norte waters late Mon into Tue. Expect a brief period of fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf on Tue. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Low pressure may develop along the monsoon trough off the southern coast of Mexico by late week, which would further enhance wind speeds and build offshore seas in excess of 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Tue, then become fresh Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6-8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week off the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Mixed swell from Tropical Storm Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas roughly from 14N to 22N west of 130W. Moderate to rough seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through early next week. Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko. The pressure gradient between Kiko and a surface ridge over the northern waters west of 120W is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds well to the NW of Kiko, as noted in earlier satellite wind data. Elsewhere, 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W is producing fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas based on recent satellite wave data. These conditions will persist through Mon, then subside Mon night as the low is expected to weaken. A weakening cold front is forecast to move across the northern forecast waters late Mon through Tue. Long period NW swell will follow the front, with seas building to near 8 ft over the far northern portion. Looking ahead, another set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters beginning Wed. Seas could build to 8-12 ft north of 26N and west of 125W by late week. $$ Reinhart