000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.1N 133.9W at 22/2100 UTC moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm SW semicircle of Kiko. A swinging motion between the west- southwest and the west-northwest is forecast to continue through the next few days. Some small fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 2 to 3 days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 22.9N 112.4W at 22/2100 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted between 30 nm and 120 nm W and SW quadrants of Mario. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the south-central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low overnight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 93W south of 16N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 88W and 95W. A tropical wave is near 105W south of 16N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 99W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 10N87W to 12N90W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 12N103W, then resumes from 14N113W to 11N120W to 14N128W, and continues west of T.S. Kiko from 13N136W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm SW quadrant of low, within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 123W, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Mario is centered over the offshore waters south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas 8-10 ft in mixed swell from Mario will continue impacting the Baja California Sur offshore waters tonight, then subside by Mon. Mario is expected to dissipate early next week. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Mario. A weakening cold front will move southward across the Baja California Norte waters late Mon into Mon night. Expect a brief period of fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf on Tue. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed and Thu, building seas to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week, becoming fresh Wed and Thu as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6-8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by mid week off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Mixed swell from Tropical Storm Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas roughly from 14N to 22N west of 130W. Moderate to rough seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through early next week. Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between Kiko and a persistent surface ridge over the northern waters west of 120W is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds well to the NW of Kiko. Fresh SW winds are noted in recent satellite wind data south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 120W. This is generating 8-9 ft seas as wind waves mix with background southerly swell. These conditions will persist through Mon, then subside Mon night as the monsoon flow weakens. Earlier satellite wind data showed a weak area of low pressure near 11N99W along the monsoon trough, which was producing a small area of fresh winds in the south semicircle. A weakening cold front is forecast to move across the northern forecast waters late Mon through Tue. Long period NW swell will follow the front, with seas building to near 8 ft. $$ Reinhart