000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1310 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The last advisory is issued by the National Hurricane Center on tropical cyclone Lorena at 22/1500 UTC. The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by scattered moderate convection that covers the area from 27N to 30N between 109W and 111.5W. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. The remnant low of Lorena is centered near 28.8N 111.5W at 22/1500 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 22.0N 111.9W at 22/1500 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. After being devoid of deep convection since yesterday, a small cluster of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has formed just to the southwest of the cyclone's center. Mario should degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours or so. The weakening low is expected to turn northward and move over the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, and dissipate later that day. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.5N 133.5W at 22/1500 UTC moving SW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some re-strengthening could begin late today or tonight, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. Seas generated by Kiko will continue to propagate across the west-central forecast waters, and combine with long period NW swell reaching the NW corner of the discussion area on Mon. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W N of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between 87W and 94W. A tropical wave is along 104W from 04N to 16N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 96W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N92W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N98W to 12N102W, then from 13N113W to 11N120W to 12N127W, and resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 13N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm SW quadrant of low, near 13N114W, within 60 nm s of the monsoon trough 118W and 124W, and within 90 nm SE of a line from 15N132W to 12N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, see Special Features section for details on Lorena and Mario. Seas of 8 to 10 ft associated with Mario and combined with primarily SW swell will continue to impact the offshore waters of southern Baja California, including the entrance to the Gulf of California through late today. Then, marine conditions are forecast to gradually improve beginning tonight into Mon. On Tue, a ridge will build across the region bringing back the normal N to NW winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Thu, with seas in the range of 6-8 ft due to southerly swell. Winds will likely increase to moderate to fresh over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue night through Thu night as the monsoon trough moves northward. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge prevails N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 20N and west of 130W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, an large area of 8 to 9 ft seas in noted in association with T.D. Mario covering the waters from 15N to 23N between 105W and 116W, and from 10N to 15N between 103W and 120W. This area will shrink in size as Mario continues to weaken. A weakening frontal boundary is forecast to move across the northern forecast waters Mon night into Tue. Long period NW swell will follow the front. $$ GR