000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Lorena is centered near 28.3N 111.5W at 22/0900 UTC moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection associated with Lorena has moved inland Mexico. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 21.0N 111.3W at 22/0900 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. There is no convection associated with this system. A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or on Monday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.0N 132.9W at 22/0900 UTC moving SW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W and 133W. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Some re- strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 03N to 14N with axis along 91W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 90W and 98W. A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 103W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 96W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N92W to 11N100W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 14N133W to 11N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 80W and 86W, and from 09N to 14N between 112W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force winds and seas to 10 ft associated with Tropical Depression Lorena are impacting the central Gulf of California. Marine conditions will improve today as Lorena moves inland NW Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more information on Lorena. The low-level center of Tropical Depression Mario is completely exposed. However, Mario continue to produce hazardous winds and rough seas in the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Mario. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in SW swell associated with Mario will continue to affect the entrance to the Gulf of California through this afternoon. Marine conditions will deteriorate over the central Baja California offshore waters Mon as the remnants of Mario track northward. Light to gentle variable winds will establish over the region Tue night and prevail through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Thu with seas in the range of 6-8 ft due to S to SW swell. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Thu night as the pressure deepens in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge prevails N of 19N W of 124W. The pressure gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 20N and west of 120W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, an area of 8 ft seas in SW swell between 104W and 120W associated with tropical depression Mario will drift SW through Mon night before subsiding Tue morning. $$ Ramos