000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 27.6N 111.2W at 22/0300 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to 28N in the Gulf of California. The center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 20.3N 110.8W at 22/0300 UTC moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. There is no significant convection associated with the storm. A turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.5N 132.5W at 22/0300 UTC moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W and 133W. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 02N to 14N with axis along 90W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 84W and 96W. A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 102W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 16N between 98W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W to 12N92W to 11N100W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko near 14N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 110W and 128W, and from 10N to 16N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hazardous winds and rough seas associated with Tropical Storm Lorena are impacting the central Gulf of California. Marine conditions will improve on Sun as a weakening Lorena makes landfall. See the Special Features section above for more information on Lorena. The low-level center of Tropical Storm Mario is completely exposed. However, Mario continue to produce hazardous winds and very rough seas in the offshore waters of Nayarit Mexico and Baja California Sur, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in SW swell associated with Mario will continue to affect the entrance to the Gulf of California through Sun evening. Marine conditions will deteriorate over the central Baja California offshore waters Sun night through Mon night as Mario continues tracking northward while weakening. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Mario. Light to gentle variable winds will establish over the region Tue night and prevail through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Thu with seas in the range of 6-9 ft due to S to SW swell. Winds will likely increase to fresh to strong over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Thu night as the pressure deepens in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge prevails N of 22N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between Kiko and this ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 18N and west of 120W, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, an area of 8 ft seas in SW swell between 104W and 120W associated with tropical storm Mario will drift SW through Mon night before subsiding. $$ Ramos