000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Sat Sep 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorena is centered near 25.6N 110.6W at 21/1500 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 28N between 108W and 111W including parts of Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa. A general motion toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 19.1N 110.6W at 21/1500 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Mario is being affected by vertical shear with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection present within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 18.4N 131.1W at 21/1500 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin later today, and this general motion should continue through Monday morning. Some slight weakening is possible during the next day or two. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 87W north of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located near the coast of Nicaragua north of 08N between 85W and 90W. A tropical wave previously analyzed near 91W has merged with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 100W, moving west around 10 kt. The wave had to be re-located significantly eastward in location. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 97W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N87W to 12N94W to 11N102W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko from 15N132W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 06N to 07.5N between 92W ad 96W, from 10N to 14N between 110W and 125W, and from 14N to 15.5N between 132W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hazardous winds and very rough seas associated with Hurricane Lorena are impacting the southern Gulf of California. The track of Lorena will bring these dangerous conditions into the central and northern Gulf of California later today and tonight, respectively. Conditions should return to normal in the southern Gulf tonight, in the central Gulf late on Sunday, and in the northern Gulf late on Monday. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Lorenz. Tropical Storm Mario is impacting the offshore waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm offshore - including the Revillagigedo Islands - as well as the entrance to the Gulf of California with hazardous winds and very rough seas. As Mario is moving toward the north-northwest and weakening, conditions will improve near the entrance to the Gulf of California by tonight and for Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas by Monday morning. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Mario. From Monday through Wednesday, a weak surface ridge will become re-established over the region, leading to quiescent winds and seas. No significant long-period swell or gap wind events are expected over the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough along near 13N through the next several days. Offshore seas are up to 8 ft due to mainly S to SW swell in the northern Panama and Costa Rica offshores and should subside by Sunday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S flow is expected in the Galapagos Islands offshores through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge extends from north of the area to 30N135W to 22N118W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the waters north of Kiko and west of 125W. No new tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. $$ Landsea