000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 UTC Sat Sep 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorena is centered near 24.6N 110.3W at 21/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 26N between 109W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N to 28N between 107W and 112W. The hurricane is expected to move over the Gulf of California and along the eastern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next two days. Weakening is forecast due to land interaction. The amount of weakening will depend on how whether Lorena stays over water. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 18.9N 110.3W at 21/0900 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows Mario shearing apart, with scattered strong convection displaced well to the southwest of the low level center. Weakening is forecast due to strong shear and cooler waters. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 18.8N 130.3W at 21/0900 UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 21N between 129W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N to 23N between 127W and 133W. A slow westward motion is expected today followed by a west-southwest motion on Sunday. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 81W north of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Panama between 82W and 88W. A tropical wave axis is along 91W north of 03N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is from 04N to 16N along 102W, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 96W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends southwest of Kiko from 16N132W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 109W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hazardous winds and rough seas associated with Hurricane Lorena are impacting the southern Gulf of California. Tropical Storm Mario is impacting the offshore waters south of 20N, including the Revillagigedo Islands. These storms will continue to impact the Gulf of California and the Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on both tropical cyclones. High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge axis to near 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California Norte, expected to prevail through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun. Offshore seas are 7-8 ft in the northern Panama and Costa Rica offshores shifting towards the Nicaragua offshores later today, then subsiding by Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW flow is expected in the Galapagos Islands offshores through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A ridge north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the waters north of Kiko and west of 125W. $$ Mundell