000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0430 UTC Sat Sep 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorena is centered near 24.0N 109.7W at 21/0300 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 22N to 25N between 108W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 21N to 29N between 103W and 113W. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 18.4N 110.1W at 21/0300 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is occurring from 16N to 19N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 109W and 120W. A faster motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight and Saturday, followed by a northwestward motion through Monday. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and become a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 18.3N 130.5W at 21/0300 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 17N to 19N between 129W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 13N to 23N between 127W and 133W. A westward motion is expected on Saturday followed by a west-southwestward motion through early Monday. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 04N to 12N with axis along 88W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 82W and 91W. A tropical wave is from 08N to 16N with axis along 100W, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 96W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 07N88W to 10N96W, then resumes west of Tropical Storm Kiko near 14N134W and continues to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical cyclones and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 120W and 125W, and from 09N to 15N west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Dangerous winds and rough seas associated with Hurricane Lorena are impacting the entrance of the Gulf of California from Cabo Pulmo to Punta Coyote east of Baja California Sur. Tropical Storm Mario is currently impacting the offshore waters to the south of 20N, including the Revillagigedo Islands. These storms will continue to impact the Gulf of California and the Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on both tropical cyclones. Surface high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge axis SE to near 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure east of 120W associated with the tropical cyclones, is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds in the Baja offshores N of 24N, expected to prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish afterwards as the ridge drifts eastward while the tropical cyclone Mario moves northward across the offshores of Baja California Sur. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Sun. Offshore seas are 7-8 ft in the northern Panama and Costa Rica offshores shifting towards the Nicaragua offshores on Sat before subsiding Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW flow is expected un the Galapagos Islands offshores through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge to the north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the waters north of Kiko and west of 125W. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14N133W, which is expected to remain nearly stationary before being absorbed by Kiko over the weekend. $$ Ramos