000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2130 UTC Fri Sep 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lorena is centered near 23.2N 109.3W at 20/2100 UTC and is nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 22N to 25N between 108W and 111W. The future track of Lorena is highly uncertain as it will likely interact with Tropical Storm Mario. Lorena should begin a northwesterly track tonight. On this track, the core of the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. However, if the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 18.0N 110.0W at 20/2100 UTC moving N at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring within 60 nm W semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 109W and 113W. A faster motion toward the north or north-northwest is expected tonight and tomorrow. The tropical storm could then turn northwestward late this weekend. On the forecast track, Mario is forecast to move near or west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. An interaction with Lorena is expected during the next few days. Interests in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Mario. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.9N 130.8W at 20/2100 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm NW semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 17N to 20N between 127W and 133W. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 87W south of 14N, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 84W and 90W. A tropical wave is near 100W south of 16N, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 96W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N82W to 10N87W to 06N96W, then resumes from 14N114W to 16N125W, then continues from 1008 mb low pres near 14N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 80W and 84W, from 11N to 15N between 120W and 124W, within 120 nm NE quadrant of the low, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough west of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Dangerous winds and rough seas associated with Hurricane Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario are currently impacting the offshore waters, primarily from Cabo San Lucas and the entrance to the Gulf of California southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. These storms will continue impacting the Baja California offshore waters through Sun. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on both tropical cyclones. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends SE into the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of 22N based on recent satellite wind data. Moderate to fresh NW winds have also developed over the waters roughly west of Acapulco southward to the Tehuantepec offshore waters. The swell from Mario, combined with NW wind waves, will maintain seas of 6-9 ft through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Offshore seas will build to 7-8 ft tonight and persist through Sat within the freshening flow between the Galapagos Islands and Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A surface ridge to the north of the area is supporting moderate NE winds over the waters north of Kiko and west of 130W based on recent satellite wind data. An area of seas to 8 ft is located within the fresh SW monsoon flow roughly from 02N to 07N between 87W and 95W. A persistent 1008 mb low pressure center is near 14N134W. The low center is expected to remain nearly stationary today, and then be absorbed by Kiko during the weekend. $$ Reinhart