000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Lorena, at 20/1500 UTC, is near 22.7N 109.0W. Lorena is moving W, or 280 degrees, 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 90 nm of center in NE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm of center in SW semicircle, and elsewhere within 360 nm of center in SE quadrant. The model guidance agrees that there will be an interaction with Mario during the next few days. Lorena is forecast to move more westward, more away from the Baja California than was forecast earlier. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane again, as it approaches the Baja California peninsula today. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Mario, at 20/1500 UTC, is near 17.9N 110.1W. Mario is moving NNE, or 030 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 180 nm of center in SW semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 360 nm of center in SW semicircle. An interaction with Lorena is expected during the next few days. Mario is forecast to move northward, and then NW, in tandem with Lorena. Little change in tensity is expected during the next 24 hours. A weakening trend will follow, as Lorena moves into cooler waters. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Kiko, at 20/1500 UTC, is near 17.7N 130.2W. Kiko is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: Numerous strong within 120 nm of center in NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm of center in NE quadrant. Kiko is forecast to move slowly, and generally westward, during the weekend. Little change in intensity is expected. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 15N southward, moving west 10 knots. Precipitation: monsoon trough-related near the wave. A tropical wave is along 99W/100W, from 16N southward, moving west 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong in clusters, from 09N to 15N within 270 nm to the east of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Panama near 08N78W, northwestward, along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, to 10N86W, to 07N90W and 06N96W. The monsoon trough is not continuous because of Lorena and Mario. The monsoon trough also is along 14N114W, 13N117W, to 17N126W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm S of monsoon trough from 98W eastward. Isolated moderate within 240 nm N of monsoon trough from 94W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 150 nm S of monsoon trough between 114W and 127W. Isolated moderate within 120 nm N of monsoon trough between 114W and 120W. The monsoon trough also passes through a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 13N134W, to 12N137W, and beyond 12N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm of center in NE quadrant, within 90 nm of monsoon trough from 135W westward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends SE into the Baja California offshore waters. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters from 23N northward. Large seas and very strong winds, that are associated with Hurricane Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario, are affecting the offshore waters from 08N to 25N between 104W and 118W. These conditions will persist through Saturday. Moderate to fresh NW winds have developed from the areas that are to the west of Acapulco to the Tehuantepec offshore areas. The swell from Mario, and the broad area of NW winds, will maintain seas of 6 feet to 7 feet through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Offshore sea heights will build to the range of 7 feet to 9 feet, through tonight, within the freshening flow between the Galapagos Islands and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko: Numerous strong within 120 nm of center in NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm of center in NE quadrant. A surface ridge, to the north of the area, will maintain moderate to fresh NE trade winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 feet are expected near Kiko. A persistent 1008 mb low pressure center is near 13N134W. The low center is expected to remain nearly stationary today, and then be absorbed by Kiko during the weekend. $$ mt