000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.0N 130.1W at 20/0900 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm N and E of the center. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 127W and 132W. Kiko is forecast to move slowly and generally westward over the weekend. Little change in intensity is expected. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 22.3N 108.5W at 20/0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center except 45 nm SW quadrant. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 105W and 110W. Model guidance has aligned to an interaction with Mario during the next few days, which takes Lorena more westward away from the Baja California than previously forecasts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula today. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 17.6N 110.2W at 20/0900 UTC moving NNE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 12N to 19N between 108W and 114W, and from 12N to 15N between 114W and 120W. An interaction with Lorena is expected during the next few days, with Mario moving north, then NW in tandem with Lorena. Little change in tensity is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by a weakening trend as it moves into cooler waters. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 87W north of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 11N between 87W and 90W. A tropical wave axis is near 99W north from 04N to 16N, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 96W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N96W, then resumes from 13N115W to 17N127W, and again from low pres near 13N134W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04N to 08N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 15N129W to 12N137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high ridge extends SE into the Baja California offshore waters. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Large seas and very strong winds associated with Tropical Storms Lorena and Mario are affecting the offshore waters north of 15N and east of 115W, and these conditions will persist through Sat. See the Special Features section above for further information on both tropical cyclones. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds have developed from west of Acapulco to offshore of Tehuantepec. Swell from Mario and the broad area of NW winds will maintain seas of 6-7 ft through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Offshore seas will build to 7- 9 ft on through tonight within the freshening flow between the Galapagos Islands and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A high pressure ridge north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh NE trade winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft are expected in the vicinity of Kiko and a persistent surface low located near 13N134W. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary today, then be absorbed by Kiko this weekend. $$ Mundell