000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0307 UTC Fri Sep 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.6N 129.6W at 20/0300 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm E and 45 nm W semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 127W and 131W. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slow motion between the west-northwest and west- southwest is forecast over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 22.3N 107.7W at 20/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center except 30 nm SW quadrant. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 106W and 109W. A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. The center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re- gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 17.6N 110.2W at 20/0300 UTC moving NE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 15N to 19N between 109W and 114W, and from 12N to 15N between 114W and 119W. A sharp turn toward the north and northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday, with the northwestward motion continuing through the weekend. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or on Friday. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday and continue through the weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 86W north of 03N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 88W. A tropical wave is near 99W north of 04N, moving west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 95W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 10N90W to 13N95W, then resumes from low pres near 12N135.5W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 91W and 95W and within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across the far northern waters off Baja California Norte. A weak high pressure ridge extends SE into the Baja California offshore waters. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Tropical Storm Lorena is currently impacting the waters near Las Tres Marias with high winds and dangerous seas. Farther south, Tropical Storm Mario is centered SE of Socorro Island, producing hazardous marine conditions over the outer offshore waters south of Cabo San Lucas. High and confused seas will persist across these area waters and into the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight through Fri as both tropical cyclones continue impacting the region. See the Special Features section above for further information on both tropical cyclones. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds have developed from west of Acapulco to offshore of Tehuantepec. Swell from Mario and the broad area of NW winds will maintain seas of 6-8 ft through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Offshore seas will build to 7-9 ft on Fri and Fri night within the freshening flow between the Galapagos Islands and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Kiko. A high pressure ridge north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh NE trade winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft are expected in the vicinity of Kiko and the persistent surface low located near 12N135.5W. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary the next couple of days, then become absorbed by Kiko this weekend. $$ Reinhart