000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.3N 129.3W at 19/2100 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 15N to 18N between 127W and 130W. A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early next week. Slow re- strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 21.6N 107.0W at 19/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 19N to 23N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 23N between 103W and 110W. The center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Interaction or influence by Tropical Storm Mario, located roughly 400 nm to the SW of Lorena, could alter the forecasted trajectory, and interests across extreme Baja California Sur should make preparations for impacts from Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 17.1N 110.4W at 19/2100 UTC moving NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 18N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 110W and 120W. A northeast general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 80W and 94W. A tropical wave axis is along 97W N of 04N, moving westward at 5- 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 93W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N87W to 11N92W, then resumes from low pres near 11N136W to beyond 10N140W. Besides the convection associated with tropical cyclones and tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 17N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the NE Pacific extends SE into the region, to between Cabo San Lucas and Tropical Storm Mario. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, to the north of Cabo San Lazaro. Tropical Storm conditions associated with Lorena continue to affect coastal portions of Jalisco, and area spreading NW across Las Tres Marias. Both Mario and Lorena are embedded within an elongated area of low pressure that is producing strong SW winds well south of Mario and spread into the coasts of Colima and Michoacan. High and confused seas will persist across these area waters and into the entrance to the Gulf of California today and tonight as both of these tropical cyclones shift northward. See the Special features section for further information on both tropical cyclones. Across the waters to the southeast, moderate NW winds have developed from west of Acapulco to offshore of Tehuantepec and are expected to increase to around 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. SW swell from Mario and the broad area of SW winds mentioned above will maintain seas of 6-8 ft through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate NW winds are expected to develop N of the monsoon through Fri, helping maintain active weather across regional waters. Fresh SW monsoon winds are forecast to develop through Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama, and build offshore seas to 7-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly westward. A ridge to the north will maintain moderate to fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected in the vicinity of Kiko and the persistent surface low located near 11N136W. The low is expected to be nearly stationary the next couple of days, and may be absorbed by Kiko this weekend. $$ Ramos