000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191618 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.0N 128.7W at 1500 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds remains 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm across the N quadrant, while scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 12N to 14N between 129W and 132W. Kiko is expected to move slowly west to west-northwest and intensify during the next 48 hours, and is expected to reach hurricane strength again Friday afternoon near 17.7N 130.8W. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered along the coast of Mexico near 20.5N 105.9W at 1500 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm across the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 16N to 23N between 104W and 110W. Lorena has recently moved offshore of Cabo Corrientes and is expected to move very close and just to the W of Las Tres Marias late this afternoon and evening. Interaction with the rugged coastline of Mexico has left very heavy rainfall there overnight, and has temporarily weakened and disrupted the inner circulation of Lorena. However, Lorena will be moving NW over very warm ocean waters and in a favorable atmospheric environment, and is expected to restrengthen to a hurricane this evening and move in the general direction of Cabo San Lucas through Friday evening and night. Interaction or influence by Tropical Storm Mario, located roughly 400 nm to the SW of Lorena, could alter the forecasted trajectory, and interests across extreme Baja California Sur should make preparations for impacts from Lorena. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 16.5N 111.5W at 1500 UTC moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 45 nm across the W semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 110W and 116W. Mario is embedded within a low to middle-level southwesterly wind flow that is also continues into Lorena. This should force Mario to move in a general NE to N-NE direction during the next few days, and strengthen slightly to just below hurricane force winds this afternoon through Friday morning. Beyond that time, Mario could interact or even potentially follow Lorena in a north and then northwest trajectory, passing offshore of Baja California Sur Friday night through the upcoming weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 82W and 85W. Broad northerly wind flow in the low to middle levels across the western Caribbean has begun to influence this wave and will likely weaken the wave during the next 24 hours. A tropical wave axis is along 95W/96W N of 08N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 90W and 100W. Much of the moisture associated with this wave has become entrained in the larger scale circulation of Lorena, and is being pulled NW across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and inland. This wave will also likely weaken during the next 24 hours under this influence. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W TO 09N84W TO 12N94W, then resumes from low pres near 14N134.5W to beyond 10N140W. Besides the convection associated with tropical cyclones and tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N E of 81W and within 60 nm either side of line from 13.5N132.5W to 10N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the NE Pacific extends SE into the region, to between Cabo San Lucas and Tropical Storm Mario, and bridged across a cold front that is approaching 30N130W this morning. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, to the north of Cabo San Lazaro. Tropical Storm conditions associated with Lorena continue to affect coastal portions of Jalisco, and area spreading NW across Las Tres Marias. Both Mario and Lorena are embedded within an elongated area of low pressure that is producing strong SW winds well south of Mario and spread into the coasts of Colima and Michoacan. High and confused seas will persist across these area waters and into the entrance to the Gulf of California today and tonight as both of these tropical cyclones shift northward. See the Special features section for further information on both tropical cyclones. Across the waters to the southeast, moderate NW winds have developed from west of Acapulco to offshore of Tehuantepec and are expected to increase to around 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. SW swell from Mario and the broad area of SW winds mentioned above will maintain seas of 6-8 ft through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection overnight across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters, associated with the tropical wave along 84W, has diminished this morning, but is expected to flare up again this afternoon and evening. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate NW winds are expected to develop N of the monsoon through Fri, helping maintain active weather across regional waters. Fresh SW monsoon winds are forecast to develop through Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama, and build offshore seas to 7-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly westward. A ridge to the north will maintain moderate to fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected in the vicinity of Kiko and the persistent surface low located near 14N134.5W. The low is expected to be nearly stationary the next couple of days, and may be absorbed by Kiko this weekend. $$ Stripling