000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.8N 127.8W at 19/0300 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm N and 45 nm S of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 125W and 129W. Kiko is expected to move slowly west to west-northwest and intensify during the next 48 hours, and could become a hurricane again on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Lorena is centered near 18.7N 104.7W at 19/0300 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 20N between 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 22N between 101W and 110W. Lorena is expected to move very close to the SW coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area overnight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward, away from the west coast of Mexico Thursday night and Friday and approach Baja California Sur as a hurricane Friday night and Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 15.4N 112.2W at 19/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 110W and 115W. Mario is expected to continue moving NW and intensify, becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. through tonight. It is forecast to become nearly stationary Friday and Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 82W N of 03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 77W and 85W. A tropical wave axis is along 96W N of 06N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 07N87W to 16N102W... then resumes near 14N131W to a 1008 MB low near 14N135W to beyond 11N140W. Besides the convection associated with tropical cyclones and tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 114W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure extends across the northern waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the Gulf of California supports moderate NW winds west of Baja California. Hurricane conditions associated with Lorena will affect Michoacan and Jalisco offshore waters, to the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri, and Baja California Sur on Sat. Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days, likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical storm conditions associated with Mario will start affecting the Baja California Sur offshore waters Thu, with hurricane conditions starting on Fri. See the Special features section for further information on both tropical cyclones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection continues across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters, associated with the tropical wave along 82W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon through Fri, and help maintain active weather across regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama, and build offshore seas to 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly westward. A ridge to the north will maintain moderate to fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected in the vicinity of Kiko and a surface low located near 14N135W. The low is expected to be nearly stationary the next couple of days, and may be absorbed by Kiko this weekend. $$ Mundell