000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182039 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.8N 127.3W at 18/2100 UTC moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 13N to 17N between 125W and 129W. Scattered moderate elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 125W and 130W. A westward track is likely later today, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday, and a westward motion on Saturday. Kiko could become a hurricane again on Friday or Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 17.9N 104.3W at 18/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 16N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N between 100W and 110W. Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 15.0N 111.7W at 18/2100 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 110W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 110W and 117W and from 10N to 14N between 116W and 122W. Mario is moving toward the NW and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary from early Friday through early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W north 0f 03N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 95W north of 06N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 94W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 08N78W to 14N97W... resumes from 14N131W to a 1008 MB low near 14N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N E of 86W, is from 10N to 14N between 94W and 97W, and is from 12N to 16N between 134W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure extends across the northern waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja California. Active convection occurring ahead of Tropical Storm Lorena and associated strong easterly winds between Lorena and the Mexican coast are building seas to 10 ft offshore of Puerto Escondido and Acapulco, and will shift northwestward with Lorena today. The ridge will build eastward today, and moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday. Lorena will produce hazardous marine conditions across Mexico offshore waters as it moves northwestward. Local marine interests should continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins, as Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection continues across the offshore waters between 90W and 98W. This is associated with the tropical wave along 95W. Gradual organization of the wave is possible during the next few days while the wave moves slowly westward. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon tonight through Fri and will help to maintain active weather across the regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama and will build offshore seas 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly and generally west- southwestward, and remains a small but robust system. A ridge to the north will help to maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to remain within about 240 nm of Kiko. To the W of Kiko, a 1008 mb low pressure center persists along the monsoon trough near 14N135W. The pressure gradient to the north of this low is producing fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft within 120 nm NW of the low. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through tonight. It may drift eastward and become absorbed into the circulation of Kiko later this week. $$ Ramos