000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.5N 125.9W at 18/0900 UTC moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm across the NW and 75 nm across the SE semicircles, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N and 120 nm across the S semicircles. Kiko is expected to meander slowly westward over the next few days, and could reach hurricane strength again near 130W on Fri. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lorena is centered near 16.1N 103.0W at 18/0900 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 45 nm in the N and 120 nm S semicircles, and in a large band extending from 120 nm to 210 nm across the NW quadrant. Elsewhere scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm NE and 240 nm SW of the center. Lorena is expected to remain a small system and strengthen slowly as it moves NW along the SW coast of Mexico through Fri morning. Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. Tropical Storm Mario is centered near 13.7N 110.1W at 18/0900 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 30 nm in the NE and 120 nm of the SW semicircles, and scattered moderate isolated strong elsewhere within 240 nm across the SW quadrant. Mario has a broad zone of strong S to SW winds extending across its SE semicircle. A NW motion and slow but gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days, with Mario remaining to the W- SW of Tropical Storm Lorena. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W north of 06N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Associated scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 93W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N85W to 14N97W. There is a significant break in the trough axis between 98W and 130W due to three active tropical cyclones. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N131W to low pres near 14N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 0N E of 85W and from 07N to 11N between 110W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure extends across the northern waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja California. Active convection occurring ahead of Tropical Storm Lorena and associated strong easterly winds between Lorena and the Mexican coast are building seas to 10 ft offshore of Puerto Escondido and Acapulco, and will shift northwestward with Lorena today. The ridge will build eastward today, and moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday. Lorena will produce hazardous marine conditions across Mexico offshore waters as it moves northwestward. Local marine interests should continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins, as Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection continues across the offshore waters between 90W and 98W. This is associated with the tropical wave along 95W. Gradual organization of the wave is possible during the next few days while the wave moves slowly westward. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon tonight through Fri and will help to maintain active weather across the regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama and will build offshore seas 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly and generally west- southwestward, and remains a small but robust system. A ridge to the north will help to maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to remain within about 240 nm of Kiko. To the W of Kiko, a 1008 mb low pressure center persists along the monsoon trough near 14N135W. The pressure gradient to the north of this low is producing fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft within 120 nm NW of the low. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through tonight. It may drift eastward and become absorbed into the circulation of Kiko later this week. $$ Mundell