000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180319 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Kiko is near 16.7N 125.5W at 0300 UTC, moving SW, or 235 degrees at 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm across the NW and 75 nm across the SE semicircles, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm N and 120 nm across the S semicircles. Kiko is expected to meander slowly westward over the next few days, and could reach hurricane strength again near 130W on Fri. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. The center of Tropical Storm Lorena is near 15.1N 102.1W at 0300 UTC, moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 45 nm across the N and 120 nm S semicircle, and in a large spiral band extending from 120 nm to 210 nm across the NW quadrant. Elsewhere scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm NE, and 330 nm SW semicircles. Lorena is expected to remain a small tropical storm and strengthen slowly as it moves NW and towards to the SW coast of Mexico Wed and Wed night. Lorena is forecast to approach or possibly scrape the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes early Thu morning through Fri morning. Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. The center of Tropical Storm Mario is near 13.2N 109.3W at 0300 UTC, moving NW, or 325 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 30 nm across the NE and 150 nm acros the SW semicircles, while scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere within 600 nm across the SW quadrant. Mario has become better organized this afternoon, with a broad zone of strong S to SW winds extending from 03N into the SE semicircle of Marion. A NW motion and slow but gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days, as Mario remains to the W and SW of Lorena. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, north of 05N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 90W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 14N98W...then briefly resumes near 11N112W TO 17N120W...then resumes again near 14.5N129W to low pres near 14N134.5W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 04.5N E to 83W, from 11.5N to 13.5N between 122W and 130W, and from 07N to 10N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the NE Pacific extends SE and weakly into the regional waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW winds across the northern waters and gentle winds across the Baja California Sur waters. Afternoon scatterometer winds showed gentle SSE winds persisting in the northern Gulf of California. Afternoon altimeter data showed seas 4-5 ft from the Baja waters to Cabo Corrientes. Very active convection occurring ahead of Tropical Storm Lorena and associated strong easterly winds between Lorena and the Mexican coast are building seas to near 10 ft offshore of Puerto Escondido and Acapulco this evening, and will shift northwestward with Lorena tonight and Wed. The subtropical ridge will build slightly eastward tonight and Wed, and freshen the winds off Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday, while moderate winds will prevail southward to Cabo San Lucas. Expect Tropical Storm Lorena to produce hazardous marine conditions across these offshore waters, as it moves northwestward. Local marine interests should continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins, as Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection continues across the offshore waters of Central America between 91W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is associated with the tropical wave along 92W. Gradual organization of the tropical wave is possible during the next few days, while the wave moves westward beyond the Tehuantepec region on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon tonight through Fri and will help to maintain active weather across the regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama and will build offshore seas 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly and generally west- southwestward across the open Tropical NE Pacific waters this evening, and remains a small but robust system. A ridge to the north of those waters will help to maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough, and Kiko, and to the west of 125W through Friday, while Kiko continues westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to remain within about 240 nm of Kiko. To the W of Kiko, a 1008 mb low pressure center persists along the monsoon trough, near 14N134.5W. The pressure gradient to the north of this low is producing strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft within 120 nm NW of the low. The low pressure center is expected to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. It is possible that it may drift eastward and become absorbed into the larger circulation of Kiko later this week. $$ Stripling