000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Kiko is near 16.8N 125.1W at 2100 UTC, moving WSW, or 240 degrees at 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm across the NW semicircle, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N and 120 nm across the S semicircles. Kiko is expected to meander westward over the next several days, and could reach hurricane strength again near 130W on Fri. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. The center of Tropical Storm Lorena is near 14.6N 101.3W at 2100 UTC, moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm across the W semicircle, while scattered to numerous strong is within 270 nm NE, 180 nm SE, 330 nm SW, and 210 nm NW quadrants. Lorena is expected to remain a small tropical storm and move NW and towards to the SW coast of Mexico, possible scraping the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes Wed night through Thu night. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. The center of Tropical Storm Mario is near 12.3N 108.7W at 2100 UTC, moving NW, or 325 degrees, at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm across the SW semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere within 270 nm NW and 500 nm SW quadrants. Mario is beginning to become better organized this afternoon, with a broad zone of strong S to SW winds extending from 03N into the SE semicircle of Marion. A NW motion and slow but gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, north of 05N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 15.5N between 90W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 13.5N97W...then briefly resumes near 11N112W TO 17N120W...then resumes again near 14.5N129W to low pres near 14.5N134.5W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 04.5N E to 83W, from 11.5N to 13N between 121W and 128W, and from 07.5N to 10N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the NE Pacific extends SE and weakly into the regional waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW winds across the northern waters and gentle winds across the Baja California Sur waters. Afternoon scatterometer winds showed gentle SSE winds persisting in the northern Gulf of California. Afternoon altimeter data showed seas 4-5 ft from the Baja waters to Cabo Corrientes. Very active convection occurring ahead of Tropical Storm Lorena and associated strong easterly winds between Lorena and the Mexican coast are quickly building seas to near 10 ft offshore of Puerto Angel this afternoon, and will shift northwestward with Lorena tonight and Wed. The subtropical ridge will build slightly eastward tonight and Wed, and freshen the winds off Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday, while moderate winds will prevail southward to Cabo San Lucas. Expect Tropical Storm Lorena to produce hazardous marine conditions across these offshore waters, as it moves northwestward. Local marine interests should continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active convection continues across the offshore waters of Central America between 90W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is associated with the tropical wave along 91W. Gradual organization of the tropical wave is possible during the next few days, while the wave moves westward beyond the Tehuantepec region on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon through tonight through Fri and will help to maintain active weather across the regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos Islands and Panama and will build offshore seas 7-8 ft there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly and generally westward across the open Tropical NE Pacific waters this afternoon, and remains a small but robust system. A ridge to the north of those waters will help to maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough and to the west of 125W through Friday, while Kiko continues westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to remain within about 240 nm of Kiko. To the W of Kiko, a 1008 mb low pressure center persists along the monsoon trough, near 15N135W. The pressure gradient to the north of this low is producing strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft within 120 nm NW of the low. The low pressure center is expected to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. It is possible that it may drift eastward and become absorbed into the larger circulation of Kiko later this week. $$ Stripling