000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Kiko, at 17/1500 UTC, is near 17.0N 125.0W. Kiko is moving WSW, or 255 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm to 300 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for KIKO are available via the WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. The center of Tropical Storm Lorena, at 17/1500 UTC, is near 13.7N 100.0W. Lorena is moving NW, or 305 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 150 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. The center of Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E, at 17/1500 UTC, is near 11.9N 108.2W. FOURTEEN-E is moving NNW, or 335 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in all directions, and within 300 nm to 480 nm of the center in the W semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for FOURTEEN-E are available via the WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for FOURTEEN-E are available via the WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, from the southern sections of Honduras and the western sections of El Salvador, southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 13N, and within 360 nm to the west of the wave from 10N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the western sections of Panama and the southern sections of Costa Rica near 08N83W, to 08N86W, to 12N93W, to 13N100W, to a 1005 mb low pressure center that is near 11N108W and 15N120W. The monsoon trough is broken up by Hurricane Kiko. The monsoon trough continues from 15N130W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 15N135W, beyond 10N140W. Widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate rainshowers are within 210 nm to the S of the monsoon trough from 86W eastward, and within 135 nm to the WSW of the 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 15N135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The surface pressure gradient that is to the west of Baja California supports gentle northwest winds across these waters. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue in the northern Gulf of California. Earlier altimeter data were showing sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet along Baja California, and 4 feet to 5 feet seas between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. The subtropical ridge will build slightly eastward today, and freshen the winds off Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Friday, while moderate winds will prevail southward to Cabo San Lucas. Expect Tropical Storm Lorena to produce hazardous marine conditions in the offshore waters, as it moves northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. Local marine interests should continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rainshowers continue across the offshore waters of Central America W of 80W. They are associated with the tropical wave that is near 90W. Gradual organization of the tropical wave is possible during the next few days, while the wave moves westward beyond the Tehuantepec region on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the south of Guatemala later today, and move toward the west-northwest through Friday. It is likely that this system may increase the southerly winds and build the offshore seas during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Hurricane Kiko is at least 1400 nm to the west of the coast of Mexico near Acapulco. A ridge that is in the northern waters will maintain moderate NE winds to the north of the monsoon trough and to the west of 130W through Tuesday, as Kiko continues moving slowly westward. A 1008 mb low pressure center, that is near 15N135W, is producing fresh to strong winds and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet. The low pressure center is expected to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. It is possible that it may drift eastward and become absorbed into the larger circulation of Kiko later this week. A broad area of wave heights in the range from 8 feet to 10 feet is from 06N to 12N between 92W and 112W, in association with enhanced SW flow in the vicinity of the 90W tropical wave and Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E. $$ mt