000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.2N 124.7W at 0900 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Kiko remains a small cyclone and it continues to be affected by northerly wind shear. Scattered to numerous strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of the center, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 90 nm north and 180 nm south semicircles. Kiko is expected to move slowly westward. Weakening to tropical storm strength is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by a brief return to minimal hurricane force in about 48 hours. See latest the NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Low pressure of 1008 mb is near 11N108W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms of moderate to strong intensity are occurring from 07N to 14N between 107W and 113W. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional organization and gradual strengthening, and a tropical depression could form within the next one or two days. After mid week, this system may interact or possibly merge with the disturbance to its east described below. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A large area of cloudiness is centered around a 1008 mb low near 12N98W. Active convection associated with this broad low is noted from 09N to 16N between 94W and 106W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm SW of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form during the next two days as this system moves west-northwest, parallel to the SW coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... In addition to the tropical waves associated with the special features mentioned above: A tropical wave is along 89W north of 04N, moving westward at 10- 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 85W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to low pres near 12N98W to low pres near 11N108W to 14N118W, then resumes SW of Kiko near 15N128W TO low pres near 14N134W to beyond 11N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient west of Baja California supports gentle northwest winds across these waters, while gentle to moderate SE winds continue in the northern Gulf of California. Altimeter data showed 3 to 5 ft seas along Baja California, and 4 to 5 ft seas between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. The subtropical ridge will build slightly eastward today, and freshen the winds off Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Fri, while moderate winds will prevail southward to Cabo San Lucas. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week off the coast of Mexico and could produce hazardous marine conditions in offshore waters. Active and squally weather currently observed west of Acapulco will shift westward today. Local marine interests should continue to closely monitor the latest NHC products. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active weather continues across the offshore waters of Central America W of 80W associated with the tropical wave near 89W. Gradual organization of this system is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward beyond the Tehuantepec region Wed. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Guatemala today, and move west-northwest through Fri. This system will likely increase southerly winds and build offshore seas the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico. A ridge over northern waters will maintain moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W through Tue as Kiko continues moving slowly westward. Weak low pressure near 14N134W is producing fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through Wed, and may drift eastward and become absorbed into the larger circulation of Kiko later this week. Elsewhere, a broad area of wave heights in the 8 to 10 ft range is present from 06N to 12N between 92W and 112W in association with enhanced SW flow in the vicinity of two tropical waves. $$ Mundell