000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.2N 124.4W at 0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Kiko remains a small cyclone and it appears to continued to be affected by northerly wind shear. Scattered to numerous strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of the center, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm across the SW semicircles. A west to west-southwest motion is expected to continue tonight through Tue night, followed by a turn back to the west-northwest on Wednesday. Gradual weakening to tropical storm strength is expected during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Low pressure of 1009 mb is near 10N107.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms of moderate to strong intensity are occurring from 07N TO 13.5N between 106W AND 116W. Conditions are conducive for additional organization and gradual strengthening, and a tropical depression could form within the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely to interact or possibly merge with the disturbance to its east described below. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered a little more than 300 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave along 99W. Low pressure of 1008 mb is along the wave axis near 11N97.5W. Strong convection associated with this broad low continues and has moved out ahead of the low, affecting the waters the Acapulco area southward to 10N. Near the low, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm W and 45 nm across the E semicircles. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as this system moves west- northwestward, and near, or parallel to, the SW coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... In addition to the tropical waves mention above: A tropical wave is along 87W north of 04N, moving westward at 10- 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between 82W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N73W to low pres near 11N97.5W to low pres near 10N107.5W TO 12.5N110W, then resumes to the southwest of Kiko near 14N128W TO low pres near 13.5N134W to beyond 11N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient west of Baja California supports light to gentle northwest winds across these waters, while gentle to moderate SE winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California per afternoon satellite wind data. Farther southeast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds were noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind to 14.5N and flowing into the active convection further SW. Afternoon altimeter data showed 3 to 5 ft seas over the waters along Baja California, and 4-5 ft between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. The ridge will build slightly eastward tonight and Tue to freshen the winds off of Baja California. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue through Fri, while moderate winds generally prevail southward to Cabo San Lucas. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the week off the coast of Mexico and could produce hazardous marine conditions in the offshore waters. Very active and squally weather is currently seen across the near and offshore waters from Tehuantepec to just west of Acapulco, and will shift westward through Tue. Local marine interests should continue to closely monitor the latest NHC products. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Active weather continues across the offshore waters of Central America W of 80W associated with the tropical wave near 87W. Gradual organization of this system is possible during the next several days while the wave moving westward or west- northwestward, and moves beyond the Tehuantepec region Wed. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds continue south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, per afternoon satellite wind data. Seas across this region are in the 7-9 ft range based on afternoon altimeter data. Mainly fresh south to southwest winds will continue or the next several days with seas as high as 8 ft in mixed southwest swell and locally generated wind waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico. A high pressure ridge over the northern waters will maintain moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Weak low pressure near 13.5N134W is producing fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary through Wed, and may drift eastward and become absorbed into the circulation of Kiko later in the week. Elsewhere, low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N107.5W, as described above under Special Features, is producing fresh to locally strong winds and wave heights of up to 11 ft across the SE quadrant. A broader area of waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft is present from 06N to 12N between 92W and 112W in association with enhanced southwest flow in the vicinity of two tropical waves. $$ Stripling