000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.3N 124.1W at 2100 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Kiko remains a small cyclone as it is being affected by northeasterly shear. Scattered to numerous strong convection is occurring within 60 nm across the N and 75 nm across the S semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles. A west to west-southwest motion is expected to continue tonight through Tue night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Low pressure of 1010 mb is near 10N107.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms of moderate to strong intensity are occurring from 07N TO 13N between 107W AND 116W. within 120 nm of the low in the W and NW quadrants. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. Overnight satellite data depicted fresh to locally strong winds in the SE and NW quadrants of this system. Conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form within the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east described below, and further development after that time is not anticipated. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered a little more than 300 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave along 97W. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 11N97W. Convection associated with this broad low has increased in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with scattered to numerous strong noted within 300 nm N and 240 nm across the S semicircles. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as this system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the SW coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... In addition to the tropical waves mention above: A tropical wave is along 86W north of 04N, moving westward at 10- 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W TO low pres near 11N97W TO low pres near 10N107.5W TO 12.5N110W, then resumes to the southwest of Kiko near 13N129W TO low pres near 13N134W to beyond 10N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient west of Baja California supports light to gentle northwest winds across these waters, while gentle to moderate SE winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California per recent satellite wind data. Farther southeast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds were noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending downwind to 14.5N and flowing into the active convection further SW. Recent altimeter data showed 3 to 5 ft seas over the waters along Baja California, and 4-5 ft between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through mid week. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the week off the coast of Mexico and could produce hazardous marine conditions in the offshore waters. Very active and squally weather is currently seen across the near and offshore waters from Tehuantepec to near Acapulco and will shift westward through Tue. Local marine interests should continue to closely monitor the latest NHC products. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms is near and just west of Central America is associated with the tropical wave near 86W. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while the wave moving westward or west-northwestward. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds continue south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, per afternoon satellite wind data. Seas across this region are in the 7-10 ft range based on afternoon altimeter data. Mainly fresh south to southwest winds will continue or the next several days with seas to 8 ft in mixed southwest swell and locally generated wind waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico. A high pressure ridge over the northern waters will maintain moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Weak low pressure near 13N134W is producing fresh to strong winds and 8-10 ft seas. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary through Tue, before it begins to drift eastward and become absorbed into the circulation of Kiko later in the week. Elsewhere, low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N107.5W, as described above under Special Features, is producing fresh to locally strong winds and wave heights of up to 10 ft across the SE quadrant. A broader area of waveheights in the range of 8-10 ft is present from 06N to 12N between 92W and 111W in association with enhanced southwest flow in the vicinity of two tropical waves. $$ Stripling