000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of dangerous Hurricane Kiko is located near 17.2N 122.6W at 0300 UTC, moving W or 280 degrees, at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots. Kiko remains a small but dangerous category 3 hurricane, with the eye seen in satellite imagery this afternoon having begun to fill in this evening. Numerous strong convection is occurring in the eyewall within 60 nm across the NE and 90 nm across the SW semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 75 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles. A west to west-northwest motion and possible slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. This will likely lead to modest weakening of peak winds for Kiko, but allow it to remain over relativley warm waters and maintain hurricane strength through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest PUBLIC advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W/95W, from 17N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 104W/105W, from 17N southward, moving west 10 knots. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W TO 10.5N90W TO 12.5N107W, then resumes from 13N127W to low pres near 13.5N134.5W to beyond 11.5N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N TO 13N E OF 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 111W, and from 08N TO 11.5N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the waters well NW of the Baja California peninsula to near 25N116W. Afternoon scatterometer data verified that light to gentle NW winds prevailed across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia, while light and variable winds are found elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas remain generally 4-6 ft in merging NW and S swell across the Baja waters this evening. Gentle to moderate SSE winds prevail across the waters of the Gulf of California N of Loreto, and are light and variable southward to Las Tres Marias. Little change in overall wind conditions are expected across the area through Monday before high pressure begins to build weakly across the Baja waters, and will produce moderate NW winds across the full length of the peninsula Mon night through mid week. Modest SW swell from Kiko will reach the Baja waters Mon to raise sea heights to 5-7 ft. Afternoon scatterometer data also showed variable winds 10 kt or less from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, while fresh northerly flow was spilling out of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong again tonight and again Mon night. Computer model guidance suggests that a tropical depression may form by the middle of next week across the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo, as part of a large area of strong SW winds and associated seas of 8-10 ft. Local marine interests across this area should monitor the local forecasts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW flow is to the south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, and extends to the entrance to western Panama. Seas across this region are generally 7-9 ft and will change little through late Mon. Very active weather is also occurring across the waters from offshore of Costa Rico to south of Tehuantepec, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. Computer models continue to suggest that a tropical disturbance may develop across this area late Mon through late Tue, and will become the precursor to a potential tropical depression offshore of southwestern Mexico later in the week. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will persist across the regional waters south of the monsoon trough for the next several days to maintain seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW swell and windwaves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for information about Hurricane Kiko. A high pressure ridge north of the region will maintain moderate to locally fresh NE winds between about 22N and the monsoon trough to the west of 125W through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Fresh SW winds and 8-10 ft seas are expected to continue roughly from 10N to 16N west of 128W. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate NE to E winds will continue N of 22N with seas of 5-6 ft in mixed swell building to 6-7 ft as SE swell from Kiko begins to spread across the NW waters. $$ Stripling