000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152246 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Kiko is located near 17.2N 121.9W at 2100 UTC, moving W or 275 degrees, at 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots. Kiko remains a small but dangerous category 4 hurricane, with a 10 nm eye seen in satellite imagery this afternoon. Numerous strong convection is occurring in the eyewall within 45 nm across the NW and 60 nm across the SE semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 60 nm NE and 120 nm SW semicircles. A west to west-northwest motion and possible slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. This will likely lead to modest weakening of peak winds for Kiko, but allow it to remain over relativley warm waters and maintain hurricane strength through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest PUBLIC advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 17N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 101W/102W, from 17N southward, moving west 10 knots. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 107W/108W, from 18N southward, moving west 10 knots. An associated 1010 mb low pressure center is location near 10.5N105.5W. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through 08N82W in Panama, to 12N99W, to 10N108W and 11N111W, then resumes from 12N123W to 12N126W to 14N133W and beyond 13N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG convection is from 04N TO 11N E OF 86W, and from 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG convection is from 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W, and from 08.5N TO 11.5N W OF 136W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N to 20N between 102W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the waters well NW of the Baja California peninsula to near 25N116W. Afternoon scatterometer data verifies that light to gentle NW winds prevail across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia, while light and variable winds are found elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in merging NW and S swell across the Baja waters this afternoon. Gentle to moderate SSE winds prevail across the waters of the Gulf of California N of Loreto, and are light and variable southward to Las Tres Marias. Little change in overall wind conditions are expected across the area through Monday before high pressure begins to build weakly across the Baja waters, producing moderate NW winds across the full length of the peninsula Mon night through mid week. Modest SW swell from Kiko will reach the Baja waters Mon to raise sea heights to 5-7 ft. Afternoon scatterometer data also showed variable winds 10 kt or less from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, while fresh northerly flow was spilling out of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong again tonight and again Mon night. Computer model guidance suggests that a tropical depression may form by the middle of next week across the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo, as part of a large area of strong SW winds and seas 8-10 ft. Local marine interests across this area should monitor the local forecasts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW flow is to the south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, and extends to the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Seas across this region are generally 7-9 ft and will change little through late Mon. Very active weather is also occurring across the waters from offshore of El Salvador to south of Tehuantepec, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. Computer models continue to suggest that a tropical disturbance may develop across this area late Mon through late Tue, and will become the precursor to a potential tropical depression offshore of southwestern Mexico later in the week. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will persist across the regional waters south of the monsoon trough for the next several days to maintain seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed SW swell and windwaves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for information about Hurricane Kiko. A high pressure ridge north of the region will maintain moderate to locally fresh NE winds between about 22N and the monsoon trough to the west of 125W through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Fresh SW winds and 8-10 ft seas are expected to continue roughly from 10N to 16N west of 128W. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate NE to E winds will continue N of 22N with seas of 5-6 ft in mixed swell building to 6-7 ft as SE swell from Kiko begins to spread across the NW waters. $$ Stripling