000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0916 UTC Sun Sep 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kiko is centered near 16.9N 120.7W at 15/0900 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 60 nm NE semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center except 60 nm NW quadrant. A west to west-northwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Kiko could become a category 4 hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is then expected to begin tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis near 91W is moving west around 10-15 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted north of 10N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave with an axis near 99W is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave with an axis near 113W is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N95W to 12N100W to 11N104W to 16N110W, then resumes from 13N124W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N east of 81W, and from 15N to 18N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 104W and 106W, and within 120 nm of the monsoon trough west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge persists over the offshore forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle breezes prevail over these offshore waters based on overnight satellite wind data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE winds were noted over the Gulf of California east of a surface trough over Baja California. Little change in wind and sea conditions are expected in this region through early next week. Farther south, scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish later today, then pulse to fresh to strong speeds again tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as a weak area of low pressure near Guatemala moves west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight, satellite wind data showed moderate to locally fresh SW flow south of the monsoon trough as scattered showers and thunderstorms continue off the coast of Panama and Colombia. Recent satellite imagery and lightning data reveal strong convection off the coast of Guatemala in association with a nearby tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves west- northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during the next several days. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Kiko. High pressure centered north of the region will maintain moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W through Mon. An area of fresh SW winds and 8-9 ft seas continues roughly from 09N to 13N west of 130W. Another area of fresh SW winds prevails well south of Hurricane Kiko, from 09N to 13N between 116W and 123W based on recent satellite wind data. Lingering SW swell is producing seas to 8-9 ft near 07N98W based on recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, a large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward or west- northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. $$ Reinhart