000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150256 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.0N 120.1W at 0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 115 kt. A well defined 15 nm wide eye developed this afternoon and is now 10 nm wide, with numerous moderate to strong convection found within 60 nm of the center, expect 30 nm across the WW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 90 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles. A W to WNW motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with additional minor strengthening, before moving WNW to NW through the middle of the upcoming week and gradually weakening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis along 90W is moving W 10-15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis along 97W/98W is moving W around 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis along 110W/111W is moving W around 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W TO 11N81W TO 09N89W TO low pres near 10N103W TO 15N111W, then resumes from 13N122W TO 13.5N133W TO beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06.5N TO 14.5N E OF 112W, and from 09N TO 13N W OF 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters persisting W of Baja California peninsula extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is forecast to strengthen slightly this weekend and cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander between the Baja peninsula and Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday night, then become less pronounced on Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave is expected to spawn a disturbance off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week. The disturbance will increase southerly winds and build offshore seas Monday. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue N of 05N and E of 95W through tonight, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sun. Seas in the trade wind belt will be 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continues from 08N to 17.5N W of 128W in association with a tropical wave just W of the area and moisture converging between Kiko and this wave. A low pressure center is expected to develop along the monsoon trough E of the wave near 13N135W Sun, then move slowly E and carry an associated area of winds and seas along the monsoon trough toward the SW flank of Kiko. The low is expected to weaken and dissipate as it approaches Kiko Tue and allow the area of winds and seas to diminish. Cross-equatorial swell propagating across the tropical Pacific continues to decay and seas W of the Galapagos Islands have subsided below 8 ft. $$ Stripling