000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Sep 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.1N 119.3W at 2100 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. A well defined 15 nm wide eye has developed this afternoon with numerous moderate to strong convection found within 45 nm of the center, expect 30 nm across the W quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 60 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles. A W to WNW motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours with additional modest strengthening, before veering more NW through the middle of the upcoming week and gradually weakening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis along 89W is moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis along 96W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis along 109W/110W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 10N104W TO 17N110W, then resumes from 13N122W TO 13.5N133W TO beyond 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 300 nm N and within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough axis E of 110W, and from 10N to 14N W of 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is forecast to strengthen this weekend and cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander between the Baja peninsula and Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday night, then become less pronounced on Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave is expected to spawn a disturbance off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week. The disturbance will increase southerly winds and build offshore seas Monday. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue N of 05N and E of 95W through tonight, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sun. Seas in the trade wind belt will be 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continues from 08N to 17.5N W of 128W in association with a tropical wave along 141W and moisture converging between Kiko and this wave. A low pressure center is expected to develop along the monsoon trough E of the wave near 13N135W Sun, then move slowly E and carry an associated area of winds and seas along the monsoon trough toward the SW flank of Kiko. The low is expected to weaken and dissipate as it approaches Kiko Tue and allow the area of winds and seas to diminish. Cross-equatorial swell propagating across the tropical Pacific continues to decay and seas W of the Galapagos Islands have subsided below 8 ft. $$ Stripling