000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1302 UTC Sat Sep 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.4N 118.3W at 1500 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is found within 120 nm of the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere to 10N to 19N between 113W and 123W. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and maintain hurricane intensity into Monday. A westward or west- northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N87W to 18N88W is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N96W to 17N96W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 06N109W to 18N109W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 03N139W to 16N139W is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 07N80W to 10N103W to 16N111W, then resumes from 13N123W to 11N130W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 07.5N to 12N between 83W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 300 nm N and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough axis E of 111W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 15N W of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is forecast to strengthen this weekend and cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander between the Baja peninsula and Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave is expected to spawn a disturbance off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week. The disturbance will increase southerly winds and build offshore seas Monday. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue N of 05N through tonight, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sun. Seas in the trade wind belt will be 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continues from 10N to 15N W of 130W in association with a tropical wave along 139W. A low pressure center is expected to develop along the monsoon trough E of the wave near 13.5N131W late tonight, then move slowly E and carry an associated area of winds and seas along the monsoon trough toward the SW flank of Kiko. The low is expected to weaken and dissipate as it approaches Kiko Tue and allow the area of winds and seas to diminish. Cross-equatorial swell propagating across the tropical Pacific continue to decay and seas W of the Galapagos Islands have subsided below 8 ft. $$ CAM