000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.3N 117.1W at 0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the W semicircle and within 60 nm across the E semicircle. Kiko is expected to maintain a WNW motion through Sun, and gradually strengthen. Kiko is forecast to reach hurricane strength near 18N120W in about 24 hours, then gradually weaken Tue and Wed as it moves over increasingly cooler waters. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave is along 95W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave is along 109W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 139W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N83W to 10N102W then northwest to 16N111W, then resumes from 14N119W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 07.5N to 12N between 83W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 105W and 115W, and within 120 nm of the trough axis W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is forecast to strengthen through early next week, and cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander between the Baja peninsula and Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday night, and could peak near 30 kt early each morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave disturbance expected to develop off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week will increase southerly winds and build offshore seas Monday. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue E of 100W and N of 05N through tonight, associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sun. Seas in the trade wind belt will be 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas continue in association with a tropical wave along 139W. The area of winds and seas will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center may briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave late tonight. Cross-equatorial swell propagating in the tropical Pacific is producing 7 to 8 ft seas, south of 02N and W of the Galapagos Islands. Combined seas in this area will slowly subside through Sun night as the swell decays. $$ Mundell