000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 17.1N 116.3W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection has blossomed in recent hours and is seen within 150 nm across the W semicircle and within 60 nm across the E semicircle. This significant increase in convection suggests that Kiko has finally begun a period of intensification. Kiko is expected to maintain a WNW motion this evening through Sun, and gradually strengthen. Kiko is forecast to reach near 18.5N 121.4W Sun evening, where it will reach hurricane strength. Kiko will then likely take a more NW trajectory and gradually weaken Tue or Wed as it moves over increasingly cooler waters. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W/83W moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave is along 92W moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave is along 107W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is described below. A tropical wave is along 135W moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W TO 09.5N84W TO 09.5N101W TO 15N109W, then resumes from 14N118W TO 12.5N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 07.5N TO 13.5N between 83W and 100W, from 08N TO 15N between 102W AND 114W, and within 150 nm of the trough W OF 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends SE to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 21.5N113W. The ridge is forecast to strengthen through the early next week and will cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander Baja and the Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday night, and expected to peak near 30 kt early each morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to occasionally fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue east of 100W and N of 03N through tonight associated with a pair of passing tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sat. Seas across the trade wind belt will generally run 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue in association with a tropical wave along 135W. The area of winds and seas will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center may briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave through Sat, then the activity shifts W of 140W by Sun. Cross equatorial swell are propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Accordingly, 7 to 8 ft seas cover the area generally south of 02N and W of the Galapagos Islands. Combined seas in this area will slowly subside through Sun night as the swell decays. $$ Stripling