000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1327 UTC Fri Sep 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.9N 114.4W at 13/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen in the W quadrant within 90 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 300 nm in the south semicircle and within 60 nm in the north semicircle. Kiko will move to 17.2N 115.8W this evening, 17.6N 117.4W Sat morning, 18.0N 119.0W Sat evening, 18.5N 120.6W Sun morning, and 19.5N 123.5W Mon morning. Kiko will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 126.1W early Tue, and then weaken to a tropical depression near 21.0N 128.5W Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N81W to 19N81W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N92W to 18N92W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N104W to 18N104W is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N136W to 15N136W is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08N89W to 14N107W, then resumes from 14N119W to 14N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N E of 81W, from 07N to 16N between 88W and 101W, from 08N to 20N between 105W and 110W and within 120 nm of the trough axis W of 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends SE to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 21N114W. The ridge is forecast to strengthen through the early next week and will cause NW winds to freshen offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander Baja and the Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sunday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue east of 100W and N of 03N today. associated with a pair of tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W through Sat. Seas across the trade wind belt will generally run 6 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell. An area of fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continue in association with a tropical wave along 136W. The area of winds and seas will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center may briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave through Sat, then the activity shifts W of 140W by Sun. Cross equatorial swell are propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Accordingly, 7 to 8 ft seas cover the area generally south of 00N and W of the Galapagos Islands. Combined seas in this area will slowly subside through Sun night as the swell decay. $$ CAM