000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 16.8N 113.5W at 13/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the n quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 240 nm south and 180 nm north semicircles. Kiko is expected to maintain a W-NW motion over the next several days, and gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane near 18.4N 120.0W Saturday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W moving W at 10 kt. Active convection continues near the wave axis from 07N TO 10N. A tropical wave is along 103W moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A tropical wave is along 133W moving W near 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N102W, then resumes from 14N120W to 13N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the axis between 89W and 100W, and within 75 nm either side of the axis between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends southeastward to north of Kiko to near 22N 111W. The ridge is forecast to strengthen slightly through Sat and will freshen NW winds offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander across the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through early Sunday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough for the next several days. Active weather will continue east of 100W today. associated with a pair of tropical waves. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W through Sat. Seas across the trade wind belt will run 6 to 9 ft in southerly swell. An area of fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas continue in association with a tropical wave along 133W. The area of winds and seas will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center may briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave through Sat, then the activity shifts W of 140W by Sun. Cross equatorial swell propagating across the tropical Pacific waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas covering the area generally south of 03N between 90W and 120W. Wave heights in this area will slowly subside through Sat morning. $$ Mundell