000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is located near 16.6N 112.7W 1004 mb at 0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 240 nm across the N quadrant, while scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm across the SW semicircle. Kiko is expected to maintain a W-NW motion over the next several days, and gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane near 17.9N 117.5W on Sat morning. Please refer to the latest advisories on Kiko issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KHNC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Very active convection continues behind this wave from 06N TO 10N across the far SW Caribbean and Panama between 77W AND 90W. A tropical wave is along 102W/103W moving W at 10 kt. A tropical wave is along 132W moving W near 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 08.5N87W TO 11.5N100W TO 14N107W, then resumes from 14N115W TO 12.5N126W to beyond 09.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 97W, FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 124W, FROM 12N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W, FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W, AND FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula extends southeastward to north of Kiko to near 22N 111W. The ridge is forecast to strengthen modestly tonight through Sat and will freshen the NWly winds offshore of Baja California. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W through Sat. Seas across this tradewind belt will run 6 to 9 ft in mixed southerly swell. An area of 20 to 25 kt winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue in association with a tropical wave along 132W. This area of strong winds and seas 8 ft and greater will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center or two will briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave through Sat, before this activity shifts W of 140W by late Sun. Cross equatorial swell is propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Seas of 8 ft or higher cover the area generally south of 03N between 90W and 120W. Wave heights in this area will slowly subside to below 8 ft by Sat morning. $$ Stripling