010 AXPZ20 KNHC 122216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Tropical Depression located several hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has become better organized this afternoon, and has recently been upgraded to Tropical Storm Kiko. Kiko is located near 16.1N 112.2W at 2100 UTC, moving west- northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are now 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 240 nm across the N quadrant, while scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm across the south semicircle. Kiko is expected to maintain a W-NW motion over the next several days, and gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane near 17.6N 119.1W on Sat afternoon. Please refer to the latest advisories on Kiko issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KHNC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Very active convection is occurring behind this wave from 06.5N TO 11N across the far SW Caribbean between 77W AND 88W. A tropical wave is along 102W/103W moving W at 10 kt. A tropical wave is along 131W moving W near 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N74.5W TO 09N88W TO 11.5N100W TO 14N107W, then resumes from 13.5N113W TO 13.5N126W to beyond 10N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 97W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 128W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N W OF 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula will strengthen modestly tonight through Sat. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W through Sat. Seas across this tradewind belt will run 6 to 9 ft in mixed southerly swell. An area of 20 to 25 kt winds and 8 to 11 ft seas has developed in association with a tropical wave along 131W. This area of strong winds and seas 8 ft and greater will shift gradually westward with the tropical wave. Global models suggest that a low pressure center or two will briefly develop along the monsoon trough in the vicinity of the wave through Sat, before this activity shifts W of 140W by late Sun. Cross equatorial swell is propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Seas of 8 ft or higher cover the area generally south of 03N between 90W and 120W. Wave heights in this area will slowly subside to below 8 ft by Sat morning. $$ Stripling