000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1450 UTC Thu Sep 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure within the monsoon trough has consolidated, and a tropical depression has formed near 16N111W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found in the NW quadrant within 150 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 110W and 114W. The depression is moving toward the WNW near 11 kt and is expected to continue to move to the W or WNW at a slower speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Please refer to advisories issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KHNC for more information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with an axis extending from 06N77W to 19N77W is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the waters from 06N to 10N E of 81W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N88W to 18N88W is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found over the waters from 07N to 11N between 81W and 87W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 05N101W to 18N101W is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place over the waters from 11N to 17N between 100W and 105W. A tropical wave with an axis extending from 03N131W to 16N131W is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present over the waters from 08N to 15N between 128W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 09N83W to 14N107W, then resumes from 14N113W to 10N132W to beyond 10N140W. Other than the areas noted above, Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 91W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 113W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula will gradually strengthen through Sat. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through the end of this week. Strong N to NE gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of 20 to 25 kt winds and 8 to 11 ft seas has developed in association with a tropical wave from 07N to 15N between 125W and 134W. This area will remain nearly stationary as weak low pressure develops near 12N134W Fri and Sat. The low will then weaken and this area of winds and seas will diminish by Mon afternoon. High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W through Sat. Seas across this tradewind belt will run 6 to 9 ft in mixed southerly swell. Cross equatorial swell is propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Seas of 8 ft or higher cover the area generally south of 03N between 90W and 120W. Wave heights in this area will slowly subside to below 8 ft by Sat morning. $$ CAM