000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0845 UTC Thu Sep 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near 15N109.5W. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple days, while the system moves WNW at near 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and also a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Also, most global models suggest gale force winds will develop across the north half of this low within 48 hours, and a gale warning has been issued to reflect the imminent development of these winds. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over waters from 07N to 10N between 82W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 100W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W/110W with an associated 1008 mb low pres near 15N109.5W, moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles of center. This disturbance is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see special features section above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 130W, moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N TO 14N between 127W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to low pressure near 15N109.5W to 10N140W. Other than the areas noted above, scattered moderate convection was noted from 11N to 15N between 112W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula will slowly weaken through tonight, then strengthen slightly through Sat. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force northerly gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico near 15N109.5W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of tropical development, models suggest that gale force winds will develop across the northern half of the low by Fri evening as the low continues to move WNW. Seas at that time are expected to build to 10-11 ft within the gale force winds. Please see the special features section above for more information. Elsewhere, high pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W through Sat. Seas across this tradewind belt will run 6-9 ft in mixed southerly swell. Cross equatorial swell is propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Seas of 8 ft or higher cover the area generally south of 12N between 100W and 130W. Wave heights will slowly start subsiding today, except in the vicinity of the developing low pressure mentioned above. $$ AL