000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1540 UTC Wed Sep 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near 13N108W. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple days, while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and also a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over waters from 08N to 12N between 86W and 92W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W/98W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 95W and 99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 06N to 18N with associated 1010 mb low pres near 13N108W, moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 100W and 115W. This disturbance is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see special features section above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W/126W, moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 125W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to the 1010 mb low pressure near 13N108W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Other than the convective areas described above in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N and east of 84W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula will slowly weaken through Thu night. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds were noted in a recent scatterometer pass off the coast of Michoacan beyond 90 nm in an area of strong convection on the eastern edge of the developing low pressure discussed above. A concurrent altimeter pass showed seas reaching 7 ft in in the area of strong winds as well. Farther south, strong to near gale force northerly gap winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region tonight through Sat night as low pressure forms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico near 13N108W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see the special features section above for more information. High pressure centered N of the area will maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Cross equatorial swell is propagating across the tropical Pacific waters. Seas of 8 ft or higher cover the area generally south of 12N between 105W and 130W. Wave heights will slowly start subsiding on Thu, except in the vicinity of the developing low pressure as it tracks to the WNW passing to the southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. $$ Christensen